This Minnesota Medicare Advantage 2026 market intelligence report covers payer rankings, Stars enrollment, AEP benefit trends, and D‑SNP/C‑SNP growth across the state.
Three moves that actually matter right now
Stabilize Stars before it costs more share
Close HEDIS gaps (diabetes control, blood pressure, post‑discharge reconciliation) and fix the CAHPS basics: appointment access, scheduling ease. The plans that stop the slide first take share from the ones that don’t.
Target the Arrowhead region before competitors do
St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties show the sharpest movement in the state. Confirm the driver, then move on it directly. This window closes fast.
Build on Minnesota’s County‑Based Purchasing dynamic
Dual‑eligible and chronic‑condition plans grew across the board. A credible high‑acuity strategy that partners with, not against, established provider networks wins share long‑term.
Who’s actually winning Minnesota
The 8 largest non‑SNP parent organizations, ranked by post‑AEP membership. Aware Integrated leads by scale; Medica, HealthPartners, and Allina Health and Aetna are gaining fastest.
HWAI Score blends product, network, marketing, and brand strength into one number (0–100). AEP movement is Dec ’25 to Feb ’26, non‑SNP individual & group MA only. TPV (True Plan Value) estimates what a plan is actually worth to the member enrolling in it, netting cost‑sharing and supplemental‑benefit savings against the premium.
Why this matters
A competitor’s move is old news by the time most teams see it
- Competitive reads live, not stale
- Updated within 12 hours of CMS
- Tracks plan design and enrollment shifts
- See moves the week they happen
Stars momentum just reversed
4+/4.5‑Star enrollment fell to 439K in 2026, continuing its decline after a modest dip in 2025 — CAHPS reweighting and network‑access friction now outweighing the marketing benefit of a high rating.
CMS cut CAHPS’ weighting from 4x to 2x for 2026, but it still swings retention.
The cost story and the benefit story are moving in opposite directions
Across 605 plans, deductibles and MOOP are climbing while premiums are rising for more plans than they’re falling. Benefit provisions move in mixed directions: specialist copay gets less generous for a large share of plans, while dental and OTC coverage are being cut even more broadly.
Cost provisions
Benefit provisions
Why this matters
The pattern is only obvious after someone reads all 605 PBP files
- All 605 plan files, parsed automatically
- Decision‑ready within 48 hours
- Catches deductible and copay shifts
- Ready before next year’s bid
D‑SNP vs. C‑SNP: both growing, at different speeds
Dual‑eligible enrollment is growing across nearly every payer tracked, led by the state’s County‑Based Purchasing plans, while chronic‑condition plans grow even faster.
D‑SNP: dual‑eligible
Broad‑based growth, led by County‑Based Purchasing plans.
C‑SNP: chronic condition
Every tracked C‑SNP payer grew this AEP.
Why this matters
Your fastest‑growing members are the ones you know least about
- Benchmarks your network, one to many
- Compares by product type directly
- Shows where SNP challengers gain strength
- Sizes network adequacy with real data
Where the map actually moves
The Twin Cities metro still drives statewide scale, but the Arrowhead region is showing the sharpest movement anywhere in the state.
- Twin Cities metro (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka, Washington) continues to drive statewide MA scale.
- The most notable share movement is in the Arrowhead region: St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties.
- Minnesota favors locally rooted, provider‑aligned organizations: HealthPartners, Sanford Health, and Allina Health.
- County‑Based Purchasing (CBP) is a distinctly Minnesota structure with decades‑deep local relationships national entrants can’t match on price alone.
Why this matters
The share is moving. Most teams won’t see where until the next filing.
- Flags county‑level share shifts as they happen
- First movers capture the Arrowhead opening
- Tracks CBP and provider‑aligned plan gains
- Timing favors you, not brokers
Minnesota Medicare Advantage 2026, the questions people are asking
Which Medicare Advantage payer had the fastest AEP growth in Minnesota for 2026?
Medica Holding Company posted the fastest 2026 AEP growth among Minnesota’s top 8 non‑SNP payers, up 111.4%, according to HealthWorksAI’s Market Snapshot data.
How is 4+/4.5‑Star plan enrollment trending in Minnesota for 2026?
4+/4.5‑Star Medicare Advantage enrollment in Minnesota fell to 439K in 2026, down from 489K in 2024 and 486K in 2025 — a 10.2% decline from the 2024 baseline.
Which Medicare Advantage payer was the only top‑8 decliner in Minnesota for 2026?
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. was the only top‑8 non‑SNP payer to lose share in Minnesota’s 2026 AEP, down 8.2%.
How many Minnesota Medicare Advantage plans changed cost‑sharing provisions for 2026?
Across 605 Minnesota MA plans analyzed, 58 plans raised drug deductibles versus 1 that lowered them, while MOOP increased for 52 plans and decreased for 13.
Is D‑SNP or C‑SNP enrollment growing faster in Minnesota?
Both are growing in Minnesota. Dual‑eligible D‑SNP enrollment is expanding across nearly every tracked payer, led by County‑Based Purchasing plans, while chronic‑condition C‑SNP plans are growing even faster among payers tracked.
Want a deeper dive, county by county?
We’ll run this same read for the specific counties and carriers you’re actually competing against, ahead of 2027 filings.
Where market, product, and network insights intersect
One data layer behind every market, product, and network read in this report.
